Ray Kurzweil has researched exponential trends for several decades. He said that individual events are hard to predict, such as the value of Apple shares one week from now, but the exponential progress of information technology is very predictable and has followed a remarkably smooth curve for a century all the way from mechanical relays to vacuum tubes to transistors to integrated circuits that will move into 3D when Moore's Law runs out of steam for 2D chips.Phil wrote:Considering the gap between what we are allowed to know about and what actually exists technology-wise, what numbers is he using for his computation?
"Since Kurzweil believes computational capacity will continue to grow exponentially long after Moore's Law ends it will eventually rival the raw computing power of the human brain. Kurzweil looks at several different estimates of how much computational capacity is in the brain and settles on 1016 calculations per second and 1013 bits of memory. He writes that $1,000 will buy computer power equal to a single brain "by around 2020"[11] while by 2045, the onset of the Singularity, he says same amount of money will buy one billion times more power than all human brains combined today.[12]" -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
That can very well be the case, such as:Wouldn't anything "they" tell us about 2045 more than likely already exist?
"By way of illustration, I will relate something told to me by a scientist formerly with the National Security Agency. During a private conversation, he told me that at least some computers within the NSA were running at a clock speed of 650 MHz during the mid-1960s. Today, of course, that’s well below the speed of an entry-level PC desktop computer. Keep in mind, however, that this speed was not matched by the consumer market until around the year 2000, a difference of 35 years. Indeed, there were no consumer-market computers in 1965!" -- http://www.afterdisclosure.com/2011/04/breakaway.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;